Ottawa, ON, Canada (WNEWS) – WNews is projecting that Mark Carney’s Liberal Party will form a minority government following Canada’s federal election held on April 28, 2025.
The Liberals are currently leading or elected in enough ridings to retain power, but fall short of the 170 seats required for a majority in the House of Commons. Final seat totals are still being counted as mail-in ballots and close races continue across several provinces.
CTV News has also projected a Liberal minority government within minutes of WNews’ call, reinforcing the emerging consensus that Mark Carney will remain Prime Minister, but will lead a weakened and minority Parliament.
A Minority Government in a Divided Canada
The election, marked by high voter turnout and intense regional divides, sees the Liberals holding on to strong urban support in cities like Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal, while losing ground in rural areas and parts of the Prairies where Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives made gains.
Although the Conservatives captured the popular vote once again, it appears they will fall short of the seat count necessary to form government.
The New Democratic Party (NDP) is projected to lose official party status with projections of 9 seats.
Final Seat Numbers Still Incoming
As of press time, Elections Canada officials are still tabulating results in several tight races across Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia.
Early projections suggest the Liberals are likely to finish in the range of 156-164 seats, with the Conservatives not far behind, and the Bloc Québécois and NDP rounding out the remainder of the next Parliament.
Official results may take several more hours — or even into Tuesday — to finalize in very close ridings, particularly where advance and mail-in ballots are high.
Despite this, WNews and other major networks are confident that the Liberals will emerge with the most seats and retain government, albeit with a weakened mandate that will require careful negotiations in the months ahead.
